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Hindsight Bias

February 12, 2012

Found a thoughtful piece on the problems of hindsight bias in relation to Iraq and Afghanistan by Arnold Kling from 2007.  Of course, back in then, we all knew that Iraq was the tricky one and not Afghanistan…

One of the most systematic errors in human perception is what psychologists call hindsight bias — the feeling, after an event happens, that we knew all along it was going to happen. Across a wide spectrum of issues, from politics to the vagaries of the stock market, experiments show that once people know something, they readily believe they knew it all along.

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